Forecast International Predicts Bizav Upswing
Industry market analyst Forecast International sees slow but steady improvement ahead for the business aviation industry in its new study released this week. Based on trends, such as increased business jet usage, stabilization in the used jet market, economic growth and strong corporate profits, the company believes the industry has already weathered the worst of the downturn. “Business jet production in 2012 will show some minor improvements over 2011, but more substantial growth in build rates will have to wait until 2013,” said Raymond Jaworowski, the firm’s senior aerospace analyst. Forecast International estimates industry output for 2011 will be 683 jets and 2012 another 728 jets, which would signal the start of a gradual market recovery. (Other sources have told AIN that 2011 business jet deliveries will number about 625.) According to the report, OEMs will match their 2008 peak of 1,313 jets produced by 2018. The study predicts a total of 10,907 new business jets will be delivered between 2011 and 2020 with an estimated value of more than $230 billion, totals that are in line with those released earlier in Honeywell’s annual prognostication. While the market has been split in demand between strong interest in the top end and sluggish sales in the light and medium segments, the study does not see that trend continuing indefinitely.