Zenith Jet Forecasts $240B in Bizjets over 10 Years
Some 11,103 business jets worth $240 billion will be delivered over the next 10 years, according to the second annual industry forecast published yesterday by Montreal-based business aviation services firm Zenith Jet. The exhaustive 40-page “bottom up” forecast estimates compounded annual growth of 15 percent for new business jet shipments from now until 2016, the predicted peak year with 1,468 delivered jets worth $31.6 billion. Zenith Jet forecast author George Tsopies foresees a trough in 2018, though at 985 aircraft worth $21.7 billion it still bests estimates of 730 jets valued at $16.7 billion and 870 jets/$19.9 billion this year and next, respectively. Besides showing a segment-level perspective of the market, the forecast also provides insights into aircraft manufacturers’ product line strategies, new aircraft development and other key industry drivers. According to Zenith Jet, projected new aircraft include clean-sheet Cessna Citation XLS+ and Sovereign replacements, with entry into service (EIS) in 2015 and 2016, respectively; Bombardier Challenger 300 upgrade (EIS 2013) and 605 follow-on (EIS 2016); Gulfstream G350, G450 and G550 replacements (EIS 2016 to 2017); and Dassault Falcon SMS/5X (EIS 2017) and 9X (EIS 2018), the latter of which would succeed the 2000DX/LX. Zenith Jet’s forecast can be downloaded online for $499, though an executive summary is available at no charge.