Bizjet Market Healthy, but ‘Shallow’ Decline Expected
In its just-released 10-year market outlook for business jets, Forecast International expects annual production to reach nearly 1,400 aircraft this year and peak next year at about 1,600 business jets. The forecaster predicts that business jet annual production will then gradually decline to 1,515 jets by 2012 before growth resumes in 2013, with yearly production exceeding 1,700 airplanes by 2017. Overall, Forecast International estimates that 15,936 business jets, worth an estimated $223 billion, will be produced between this year and 2017. According to the company, this total includes approximately 5,600 very light jets, which it said will be “a very dynamic portion of the market.” Forecast International cites high order backlogs and international demand as an indication of the business jet market’s strength but added that there are several warning signs–specifically, the economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe, fuel costs, user fees and U.S. market saturation–that will cause a “shallow” decline between 2010 and 2012. “Robust sales in other parts of the world will help offset slowing sales in the saturated U.S. market,” concluded Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski.