Teal Predicts More Good Times Ahead for Bizav
The 18th annual Teal Group Business Jet Overview, released on Friday, forecasts production of 14,289 business jets worth $218 billion (in 2008 dollars) over the next 10 years. Separately, the aerospace consulting group estimates that 779 corporate versions of jetliners and regional jets, worth a combined total of $38.1 billion, and 3,373 business turboprops, worth some $14.5 billion, will be built in the period between 2008 and 2017. While Teal continues to be an “air-taxi agnostic,” it forecasts deliveries of 3,365 very light jets, including 1,385 Cessna Citation Mustangs and 925 Embraer Phenom 100s, over the 10-year period. Though its overall forecast is rosy, Teal sees “preliminary signs of a softening market” and predicts a peak in 2010 followed by a “modest market dip” that is expected to bottom out in 2012. Even so, “This industry looks set to remain considerably larger than before its pre-1996-2001 transformation, when it experienced 350-percent growth.” In terms of sales revenue, Teal expects that Gulfstream and Bombardier will be the business jet market leaders, followed by Cessna, Dassault, Hawker Beechcraft and Embraer. “We do not see any new players emerging from the carnage of the recent years, although something might be salvageable from Eclipse Aviation,” it concluded.