The possibility of an end to international sanctions against Iran has piqued the interest of aircraft manufacturers from around the world with the promise of a lucrative new market for airliners. But an apparent division between Iran’s ruling elite and air transport industry along with mixed signals from Iranian government officials over sourcing has led to ambiguity over which airframers stand in a position benefit. To fully modernize its fleets, Iran would have to spend some $20 billion on about 400 passenger airplanes, about 100 of which it needs immediately, according to the officials.

Iran’s supreme religious leader, Ali Khamenei, has pledged Tehran will not cooperate with the West beyond the recently struck nuclear deal, and, instead, will develop economic ties with China and Russia. His views have met with the uncompromised support of the defense ministry and local manufacturers under the government’s banner, whose interests lie primarily with development of in-house capability with Russian assistance.

However, Iran’s minister for roads and urban construction recently told reporters that the Sukhoi Superjet—the newest and most technologically advanced Russian civil airliner now in production—is not an option for Iran’s airlines. “We have already reached preliminary agreements with the world’s leading manufacturers,” Ahmad Abbas Akhundi said, referring to Airbus and Boeing.

Akhundi’s comments came only weeks after Soren Sattari, Iranian vice president for science and technology and the head of a national delegation at the MAKS 2015 airshow in Moscow, told Moscow-based newspaper Kommersant that Tehran wants to buy Sukhoi civil and military aircraft and manufacture them under license.

“One of the local airlines has attested to the Superjet 100 with a positive conclusion,” Sattari said. If Russia offers attractive financial terms, “many Iranian airlines will be willing to acquire Superjets,” he added. “My role as the vice president for science and technologies is to coordinate activities of Iranian governmental structures that would get involved. My primary task is to ensure Iran’s access to most modern technologies.”

Sattari also said that Tehran “will not repeat mistakes of the past," including the sale of natural resources in exchange for high-tech imports. Today, it would rather make better use of 500 universities and 400 scientific-industrial centers in the country to develop high-tech products of its own. “It is important [to ensure] that our cooperation develops in the way of joint projects,” he noted. “In other words, we want joint development.”

Russian minister for transportation Maxim Sokolov confirmed that negotiations on Superjets were ongoing. According to Russian sources, Iranian airlines would get access to three aircraft for operational trials, wet leased from a Russian airline, most likely Red Wings, in late 2015 or early 2016. As a next step, Iran and Russia would negotiate a larger deal at the next meeting of the inter-governmental commission later this autumn. Shortly after MAKS, however, the secretary of Iran’s Aviation Companies Association, Maghsud Asadi Samani, told the Iranian government’s ISNA news agency that the statements by Sattari “had been made in general” and, therefore, should not be considered a commitment by Iran to buy Superjets.

A month after MAKS 2015, Manouchehr Manteki, CEO of Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO), told reporters that during the show the national delegation held negotiations on Russian-made jetliners.

“Delegation members carried out an analysis of advantages and disadvantages” pertaining to operational qualities of the Superjet, he said. Consequently, they signed a preliminary agreement calling for the provision of two SSJ100s on operating lease terms. If, after further study, performance, financial terms and a technical support package prove as advertised, the conditional agreement would become firm. Shortly thereafter, Manteki told the Sputnik news agency that Tehran and Moscow “signed a number of contracts” at MAKS, calling for purchase of Russian aerospace equipment valued at $21 billion. Even though Manteki did not specify what Iran plans to acquire, he named the Superjet among aircraft under consideration.

Ilyushin Finance Company general manager Alexander Roubtsov told AIN on Tuesday that his company has been talking to four Iranian airlines about the Superjet, as well as the Tupolev Tu-204 and the Irkut MC-21. The lessor has kept in touch with those airlines and other Iranian carriers for years, he acknowledged. Nevertheless, Roubtsov said IFC has not officially offered the Superjet or other types to Iran because of the sanctions regime. “We obey to the law and the rules,” he said. “No one wants to get on the list of international sanctions for dealing with the country that is still under international sanctions. We will make an official offer to the Iranian airlines as soon as the sanctions regime is lifted.” 

A spokesman for Sukhoi Civil Aircraft (SCAC) and its parent company, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), flatly refused to offer AIN a comment on the prospects for Iranian sales, citing an official policy not to do so by UAC and its member companies.  

Christopher Buckley, Airbus executive vice president for Europe, told reporters at MAKS that he considers talk of selling airplanes to Iran premature. “We are excited about the opportunity, but today it is extremely early to speak about that,” he said.

During a recent interview with AIN, Boeing vice president of sales for the Middle East, Russia and Central Asia Marty Bentrott expressed similar sentiments. Bentrott added, however, that while he expects Airbus to share in the spoils of an open Iran, the prospect of any Russian incursion with the MC-21, for example, would appear remote mainly due to the country’s historical preference for Western airplanes. “There hasn’t been a rich history of successful operation of Russian aircraft in Iran, so that would probably be a hindrance,” he concluded.