Business Jet Market Weakening, Says UBS
The latest business jet market index from UBS Investment Research fell a further 8 percent, to 37, the second consecutive decrease and below the threshold of 50–the median above which a growing market is indicated and below which deterioration is seen. This follows a stable first half, in which the index held at 50–meaning stabilized conditions–for three consecutive surveys. All five index components declined in the most recent survey relative to July. The customer interest score dropped by 10 percent, to 49, which was “the most significant driver of the overall decline in our index,” UBS said. This was followed by pricing, which fell from 43 to 39, while pre-owned aircraft inventory came in at a dismal six, down three points from July. Customer willingness to buy was nearly unchanged, at 36. A bright spot in the index components is the 12-month outlook, which stands at 70 and is also nearly unchanged from the July survey. Meanwhile, UBS’s straight-up measure of absolute business conditions held steady at a depressed level, with inventory of young pre-owned aircraft decreasing slightly while available financing took a slight turn for the worse. “Overall, we see risk of a muted recovery given significant [pre-owned aircraft] oversupply, fractional weakness and cautious outlook for Europe,” concluded UBS aerospace analyst David Strauss.